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Forecasting Inflation Risks in Latin America: A Technical NoteRodrigo Mariscalaffiliation not provided to SSRN Andrew PowellUniversidad Torcuato Di Tella - School of Business; Inter-American Development Bank (IDB); Harvard University - Center for International Development (CID) June 2012 IDB Working Paper No. IDB-TN-403 Abstract: There are many sources of inflation forecasts for Latin America. The International Monetary Fund, Latin Focus, the Economist Intelligence Unit and other consulting companies all offer inflation forecasts. However, these sources do not provide any probability measures regarding the risk of inflation. In some cases, Central Banks offer forecast and probability analyses but typically their models are not fully transparent. This technical note attempts to develop a relatively homogeneous set of methodologies and employs them to estimate inflation forecasts, probability distributions for those forecasts and hence probability measures of high inflation. The methodologies are based on both parametric and non-parametric estimation. Results are given for five countries in the region that have inflation targeting regimes.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 23 JEL Classification: C53, E37 working papers seriesDate posted: July 9, 2012Suggested CitationContact Information
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