Financial and Demographic Risk Impact on Private Pay-as-You-Go Pension System: The Italian Case

Actual Problems of Economics, 133, pp. 427-439, July 2012

13 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2012 Last revised: 14 Aug 2012

See all articles by Roberta Melis

Roberta Melis

Università degli Studi di Sassari

Alessandro Trudda

Università degli Studi di Sassari

Date Written: July 14, 2012

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze private pension systems financed by pay-as-you-go, with a focus on the pension funds of the Italian Professional Orders. The research centres on the financial and demographic risks and on their impact on the future evolution of the fund. It presents a model to investigate the dynamics of these types of pension funds which operate according to the pay-as-you-go rule: the two stochastic variables global asset return and new entrants variation rate are modelled by autoregressive processes. The numerical applications carried out, using the data provided by the Italian Chartered Accountants’ pension fund, show that the rate of variation of new entrants has a higher influence on the evolution of the fund with respect to the global asset return, despite the considerable invested wealth. Some proposal are developed to face the demographic "extinction risk" of the insured professional category.

Keywords: Pension Funds, PAYG system, demographic risk, stochastic new entrants, extinction risk

JEL Classification: G23, H55, J11

Suggested Citation

Melis, Roberta and Trudda, Alessandro, Financial and Demographic Risk Impact on Private Pay-as-You-Go Pension System: The Italian Case (July 14, 2012). Actual Problems of Economics, 133, pp. 427-439, July 2012, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2106022

Roberta Melis (Contact Author)

Università degli Studi di Sassari ( email )

Piazza Universita
Sassari, 07100
Italy

Alessandro Trudda

Università degli Studi di Sassari ( email )

Piazza Universita
Sassari, 07100
Italy

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