What Drives the Quotes of Earnings Forecasters?
Bert De Bruijn
Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE)
Philip Hans Franses
Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Econometrics
July 11, 2012
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 12-067/4
Earnings forecasts can be useful for investment decisions. Research on earnings forecasts has focused on forecast performance in relation to firm characteristics, on categorizing the analysts into groups with similar behavior and on the effect of an earnings announcement by the firm on future earnings forecasts. In this paper we investigate the factors that determine the value of the forecast and also investigate to what extent the timing of the forecast can be modeled. We propose a novel methodology that allows for such an investigation. As an illustration we analyze within-year earnings forecasts for AMD in the period 1997 to 2011, where the data are obtained from the I/B/E/S database. Our empirical findings suggest clear drivers of the value and the timing of the earnings forecast. We thus show that not only the forecasts themselves are predictable, but that also the timing of the quotes is predictable to some extent.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 35
Keywords: earnings forecasts, earnings announcements, financial markets, financial analysts
JEL Classification: G17, G24, M41working papers series
Date posted: July 30, 2012 ; Last revised: August 9, 2012
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