Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times

Abstract:     
Much seems uncertain in the world of presidential election forecasting these days. The economy has been experiencing great swings, serious candidates sometimes lack the traditional racial profile, and forecasts themselves are coming from all directions. Perhaps as a product of these forces, our reliable Jobs Model was challenged in 2008. Here we review the theory of the Jobs Model, updating it for 2012. Then, in a radical departure, we offer as an alternative the Proxy Model, based on empirics rather than theory. We compare the performance of the two, in a series of “nowcasts,” which declare who the winner would be if the election were held “now.” By any of these measures (still preliminary as of this writing), President Obama appears to have a battle on his hands. Indeed, he may even fall into the “win-lose triangle” of the Gore result, winning the popular vote but losing the electoral vote.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 18

Keywords: US presidential forecasting, economic voting

working papers series