Abstract

 


 



Variation in Risk Seeking Behavior in a Natural Experiment on Large Losses Induced by a Natural Disaster


Lionel Page


Queensland University of Technology - Judge Business School, University of Cambridge

David A. Savage


Queensland University of Technology

Benno Torgler


Queensland University of Technology; CREMA; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

July 18, 2012

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3878

Abstract:     
This study explores people’s risk attitudes after having suffered large real-world losses following a natural disaster. Using the margins of the 2011 Australian floods (Brisbane) as a natural experimental setting, we find that homeowners who were victims of the floods and face large losses in property values are 50% more likely to opt for a risky gamble – a scratch card giving a small chance of a large gain ($500,000) - than for a sure amount of comparable value ($10). This finding is consistent with prospect theory predictions of the adoption of a risk-seeking attitude after a loss.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 18

Keywords: decision under risk, large losses, natural experiment

JEL Classification: D030, D810, C930

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Date posted: July 19, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Page, Lionel, Savage, David A. and Torgler, Benno, Variation in Risk Seeking Behavior in a Natural Experiment on Large Losses Induced by a Natural Disaster (July 18, 2012). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3878. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2111922

Contact Information

Lionel Page
Queensland University of Technology - Judge Business School, University of Cambridge ( email )
GPO Box 2434
Brisbane, Queensland 4000
Australia
David A. Savage
Queensland University of Technology ( email )
GPO Box 2434
2 George Street
Brisbane, Queensland 4001
Australia
Benno Torgler (Contact Author)
Queensland University of Technology ( email )
GPO Box 2434
2 George Street
Brisbane, Queensland 4001
Australia
CREMA
Gellertstrasse 18
Basel
Zurich, CH 8006
Switzerland
CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany
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