Debt- and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes
Kristin J. Forbes
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Bank of England - Monetary Policy Committee
Francis E. Warnock
University of Virginia - Darden Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
NBER Working Paper No. w18329
Forbes and Warnock (2012) identify episodes of extreme capital flow movements--surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment--and find that global factors, especially global risk, are significantly associated with extreme capital flow episodes whereas domestic macroeconomic characteristics and capital controls are less important. That analysis leads naturally to the question of which types of capital flows are driving the episodes and if debt- and equity-led episodes differ in material ways. After identifying debt- and equity-led episodes, we find that most episodes of extreme capital flow movements around the world are debt-led and the factors associated with debt-led episodes are similar to the factors behind episodes identified with aggregate capital flow data. In contrast, equity-led episodes are less frequent, more idiosyncratic, and differ in nature from other episodes.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 34
Date posted: August 18, 2012
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