Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Severity and Evolution of Civil Conflict
University of Pittsburgh
Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Political Science
University of Utah - Department of Finance
June 11, 2013
We analyze the severity and dynamics of civil wars, departing from analyses focused primarily on static models of the effect of income on the extensive margin of conflict. Comparing our results with analogous estimates that use a binary indicator for war, omitting conflict severity and state dependence significantly understates the effect of income on the costs of civil conflict in terms of loss of life. The more important results examine conflict dynamics. Civil conflicts are shown to be persistent, but except for the very poorest countries, conflicts do not appear to become more severe in response to past fighting.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 37
JEL Classification: D74, N40, C23working papers series
Date posted: August 25, 2012 ; Last revised: June 12, 2013
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