Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2143293
 


 



Not Fooled by Randomness: Using Random Portfolios to Analyze Investment Funds


Roberto Andres Stein


Tulane University - A.B. Freeman School of Business; University of Chile - School of Economics and Business

August 31, 2012


Abstract:     
The biggest challenge in testing mutual funds for manager skill is the lack of a probability distribution of returns under the null hypothesis of no skill. A methodology based on randomly trading portfolios and non parametric statistical tests is explored, and a test of skill is proposed. Simulation is used to perform an in-depth study of the properties of this test, and to compare its power against that of other tests of skill based on factor model alphas. Empirical tests performed on a sample of US equity mutual funds find evidence of skill in a reduced number of managers, but that the value added by this skill is charged away from the investors in the form of fund fees and expenses. Overall, random portfolio based measures are found to be more powerful and easier to interpret than tests based on traditional and bootstrapped factor model alphas.

Keywords: Mutual Fund Management, Luck, Skill, Factor Models, Non parametric measures

JEL Classification: C12, C14, G11, G23

working papers series


Not Available For Download

Date posted: September 8, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Stein, Roberto Andres, Not Fooled by Randomness: Using Random Portfolios to Analyze Investment Funds (August 31, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2143293 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2143293

Contact Information

Roberto Andres Stein (Contact Author)
Tulane University - A.B. Freeman School of Business ( email )
7 McAlister Drive
New Orleans, LA 70118
United States
University of Chile - School of Economics and Business ( email )
Santiago
Chile
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