Real Estate Sector Response to Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks
University of Maryland, Eastern Shore - School of Business and Technology; University of Maryland, College Park
University of Maryland, Eastern Shore
September 25, 2012
International Research Journal of Applied Finance, 3(12), 1739-1747
This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the performance of the real estate sector proxied by Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) returns in the United States. Using monthly REIT index data and the monthly changes in a newly constructed index of economic policy uncertainty (∆EPU) in the United States spanning 1985-2011, we investigate the impulse response functions of the REIT returns to the changes in economic policy uncertainty using a vector auto regression (VAR) analysis. The Granger-causality test is also performed to determine if economic policy uncertainty causes the fluctuations in REIT returns. The relationship is weaker for mortgage investments than the total index. When mediated by the CRSP Value Weighted Stock Returns, the relationship between REIT returns and the ∆EPU becomes insignificant.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 11
Keywords: REIT, economic policy uncertainty, VAR
JEL Classification: E60, G12, G14, L85Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: September 26, 2012 ; Last revised: December 30, 2012
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