Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
January 13, 2014
Forthcoming, Public Opinion Quarterly
Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The majority of respondents correctly predicted the election winner in 193 (89%) of 217 surveys conducted from 1932 to 2012. Across the last 100 days prior to the seven elections from 1988 to 2012, vote expectation surveys provided more accurate forecasts of election winners and vote shares than four established methods (vote intention polls, prediction markets, econometric models, and expert judgment). Gains in accuracy were particularly large compared to polls. On average, the error of expectation-based vote-share forecasts was 51% lower than the error of polls published the same day. Compared to prediction markets, vote expectation forecasts reduced the error on average by 6%. Vote expectation surveys are inexpensive, easy to conduct, and the results are easy to understand. They provide accurate and stable forecasts and thus make it difficult to frame elections as horse races. Vote expectation surveys should be more strongly utilized in the coverage of election campaigns.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 34
Keywords: combining forecasts, Iowa Electronic Markets, election forecasting, forecast accuracy, econometric models, FiveThirtyEight
JEL Classification: C53, C42Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: October 10, 2012 ; Last revised: January 13, 2014
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