The Partisan Fallout from Arizona's Immigration Battle: Applying Lessons from California

Abstract:     
We explore the potential political impact of Arizona’s controversial immigration statute, SB 1070, by examining a similar event: the 1994 passage of Proposition 187 in California. Both statutes were efforts to respond to the flow of undocumented immigrants (largely) entering through each state’s border with Mexico, and thus are seen as especially noxious to Latinos. We reexamine and extend the academic literature on the political impact of Proposition 187 and apply the effect estimates to Arizona by simulating the two-party presidential vote from 2012 thru 2032 under a variety of scenarios. Our results show sizable movement toward the Democratic candidate in Arizona — if Latinos and non-Latinos there react to SB 1070 as Californians reacted to Prop. 187. Coupled with population trends, we project the Democrat presidential candidate to become immediately competitive in the 2012 election and to carry the state as early as 2020.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 33

Keywords: Latino Voting Behavior, Parties and Elections, Immigration, California, Arizona

JEL Classification: D70, C15

working papers series