Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2164787
 
 

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Predicting the 'Unpredictable': An Empirical Analysis of U.S. Patent Infringement Awards


Michael J. Mazzeo


Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management

Jonathan Hillel


Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP

Samantha Zyontz


Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

October 20, 2012


Abstract:     
Patent infringement awards are commonly thought to be unpredictable, which raises concerns that patents can lead to unjust enrichment and impede the progress of innovation. We investigate the predictability of patent damages by conducting a large-scale econometric analysis of award values. We begin by analyzing the outcomes of 340 cases decided in US federal courts between 1995 and 2008 in which infringement was found and damages were awarded. Our data include the amount awarded, along with information about the litigants, case specifics and economic value of the patents-at-issue. Using these data, we construct an econometric model that explains over 75% of the variation in awards. We further conduct in-depth analysis of the key factors affecting award value, via targeted regressions involving selected variables. We find a high degree of significance between award value and ex ante-identifiable factors collectively, and we also identify significant relationships with accepted indicators of patent value. Our findings demonstrate that infringement awards are systematically predictable and, moreover, highlight the critical elements that can be expected to result in larger or smaller awards.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 30

Keywords: Patent, Reform, Empirical, Data, Predict

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Date posted: October 21, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Mazzeo, Michael J. and Hillel, Jonathan and Zyontz, Samantha, Predicting the 'Unpredictable': An Empirical Analysis of U.S. Patent Infringement Awards (October 20, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2164787 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2164787

Contact Information

Michael J. Mazzeo (Contact Author)
Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management ( email )
2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States
847-467-7551 (Phone)
Jonathan Hillel
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP ( email )
4 Times Square
New York, NY 10036
United States
HOME PAGE: http://www.skadden.com
Samantha Zyontz
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )
77 Massachusetts Ave.
E62-416
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
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