Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2185708
 
 

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Desarrollo del Mercado de Bonos sub-nacionales en México:
Primera aproximación a los factores que inciden en el riesgo implícito de los
Certificados Bursátiles (Sub-national Bond Market Development in Mexico: First Approach to the Factors Affecting the Risk Premium of Stock Exchange Certificates)


Salvador Espinosa


San Diego State University - School of Public Affairs; Indiana University - The Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis

December 5, 2012

Forthcoming, 2013, English version: Espinosa, Salvador,"Subnational Bond Market Development: What Drives the Yield Spreads of Mexican Cebures?" Latin American Policy 4(2)

Abstract:     
Existe un creciente interés entre varias economías emergentes por promover la emisión de bonos sub-nacionales, pues consideran que tales instrumentos pueden ser una alternativa viable para aumentar el margen de maniobra financiera de los emisores, y una herramienta útil para acelerar el crecimiento económico. Hay que tener presente, sin embargo, los retos que pueden surgir cuando los gobiernos regionales y locales utilizan bonos de deuda para financiar sus actividades. El presente documento de trabajo pretende iniciar una reflexión sobre los factores que inciden en la definición de una variable clave que los inversionistas consideran al analizar el riesgo implícito de una emisión: la dispersión relativa en el rendimiento de un bono. El análisis que se presenta a continuación compara una muestra de Certificados Bursátiles (Cebures) emitidos por gobiernos estatales mexicanos con una muestra de bonos emitidos por gobiernos locales en Estados Unidos. Los resultados muestran que, en el caso Mexicano, las variables que afectan la variable dependiente están relacionadas con la estructura del bono emitido y no en factores que reflejen la condición financiera del emisor. La efectividad de las medidas de política pública que pudiesen implementar los emisores serán poco efectivas en cuanto a modificar las percepciones del riesgo del mercado.

A growing number of emerging economies are interested in developing their sub-national bond markets, as they consider bond financing as an adequate tool to increase their financial maneuverability and potentiate opportunities for economic growth. This article seeks to trigger a reflection on the factors that emerging nations like Mexico would need to take into account if the aim is to issue bond instruments that are attractive to investors, and whether or not such factors can be manipulated with public policies. This article contributes to ongoing debates on subnational bond market development by assessing the factors affecting the yield spread in a sample of Mexican bonds known as Cebures. The results show that such yield spreads are only affected by variables associated with the structure of the bond, and not on factors reflecting the financial strength of the issuing entity (as it occurs in the U.S. municipal bond market). What this entails is that government policies aimed at modifying the implicit risk of this type of bonds may not be sufficient to alter bond buyer’s risk perceptions.

Note: Downloadable document in Spanish.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 27

Keywords: bonds, debt instruments, securities markets, Cebures, emerging economies, Mexico

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Date posted: December 7, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Espinosa, Salvador, Desarrollo del Mercado de Bonos sub-nacionales en México: Primera aproximación a los factores que inciden en el riesgo implícito de los Certificados Bursátiles (Sub-national Bond Market Development in Mexico: First Approach to the Factors Affecting the Risk Premium of Stock Exchange Certificates) (December 5, 2012). Forthcoming, 2013, English version: Espinosa, Salvador,"Subnational Bond Market Development: What Drives the Yield Spreads of Mexican Cebures?" Latin American Policy 4(2). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2185708

Contact Information

Salvador Espinosa (Contact Author)
San Diego State University - School of Public Affairs ( email )
5500 Campanile Drive
San Diego, CA 92182-4505
United States
(619)594-5880 (Phone)
HOME PAGE: http://www.salvadorespinosa.com
Indiana University - The Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis ( email )
Indiana University Bloomington
IN
United States
HOME PAGE: http://www.iub.edu/~workshop
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