The 2013 Italian Election: A Poll-Based Forecast

Abstract:     
In this document, I forecast the results of the Italian general election using aggregated polling data. According to this forecast, there is an extremely high probability of the centre-left winning an overall majority in the lower chamber (p ≈ 100%); the probability of the centre-left winning an overall majority in the Senate, however, is extremely low, at 4.5%. The centre-left is very likely to lose in Lombardia and the Veneto. It has a two-in-five chance of winning in Sicily. The radical left list, Rivoluzione Civile, is unlikely to win seats in the Senate (p = 20.7%). By contrast, the two extreme-right parties which form part of the centre-right coalition (Fratelli d’Italia and la Destra) seem to have a good chance of acquiring representation in the Senate (though not necessarily in the Camera).

A coalition between the PD and the list led by Mario Monti would be extremely likely to have a majority in the Senate (p = 94.2%). However, this depends on considerable cohesion within the Monti-led list. A coalition which drew only on ‘definite’ Montiani (i.e., not including those placed on the list by the UDC or FLI) would only have a 50:50 chance of a majority, even with support from minor parties on the centre-left. Consequently, almost irrespective of the government that forms, fresh elections are likely to be held within the next two years.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 57

Keywords: election forecasting, elections, Italy

working papers series