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The 2013 Italian Election: A Poll-Based Forecast

Chris Hanretty

February 10, 2013

In this document, I forecast the results of the Italian general election using aggregated polling data. According to this forecast, there is an extremely high probability of the centre-left winning an overall majority in the lower chamber (p ≈ 100%); the probability of the centre-left winning an overall majority in the Senate, however, is extremely low, at 4.5%. The centre-left is very likely to lose in Lombardia and the Veneto. It has a two-in-five chance of winning in Sicily. The radical left list, Rivoluzione Civile, is unlikely to win seats in the Senate (p = 20.7%). By contrast, the two extreme-right parties which form part of the centre-right coalition (Fratelli d’Italia and la Destra) seem to have a good chance of acquiring representation in the Senate (though not necessarily in the Camera).

A coalition between the PD and the list led by Mario Monti would be extremely likely to have a majority in the Senate (p = 94.2%). However, this depends on considerable cohesion within the Monti-led list. A coalition which drew only on ‘definite’ Montiani (i.e., not including those placed on the list by the UDC or FLI) would only have a 50:50 chance of a majority, even with support from minor parties on the centre-left. Consequently, almost irrespective of the government that forms, fresh elections are likely to be held within the next two years.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 57

Keywords: election forecasting, elections, Italy

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Date posted: February 10, 2013 ; Last revised: February 14, 2013

Suggested Citation

Hanretty, Chris, The 2013 Italian Election: A Poll-Based Forecast (February 10, 2013). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2214605 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2214605

Contact Information

Chris Hanretty (Contact Author)
( email )
Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ
United Kingdom
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