Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2235423
 
 

References (28)



 
 

Footnotes (34)



 


 



More Tweets, More Votes: Social Media as a Quantitative Indicator of Political Behavior


Joseph DiGrazia


Indiana University, Bloomington

Karissa McKelvey


Indiana University Bloomington - School of Informatics

Johan Bollen


Indiana University Bloomington - School of Informatics

Fabio Rojas


Indiana University

February 21, 2013


Abstract:     
Is social media a valid indicator of political behavior? We answer this question using a random sample of 537,231,508 tweets from August 1 to November 1, 2010 and data from 406 competitive U.S. congressional elections provided by the Federal Election Commission. Our results show that the percentage of Republican-candidate name mentions correlates with the Republican vote margin in the subsequent election. This finding persists even when controlling for incumbency, district partisanship, media coverage of the race, time, and demographic variables such as the district’s racial and gender composition. With over 500 million active users in 2012, Twitter now represents a new frontier for the study of human behavior. This research provides a framework for incorporating this emerging medium into the computational social science toolkit.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 11

Keywords: Computational Social Science, Elections, Twitter, Social Media

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Date posted: March 19, 2013  

Suggested Citation

DiGrazia, Joseph and McKelvey, Karissa and Bollen, Johan and Rojas, Fabio, More Tweets, More Votes: Social Media as a Quantitative Indicator of Political Behavior (February 21, 2013). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2235423 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2235423

Contact Information

Joseph DiGrazia (Contact Author)
Indiana University, Bloomington ( email )
Bloomington, IN 47405
United States
Karissa McKelvey
Indiana University Bloomington - School of Informatics ( email )
901 E 10th St
Bloomington, IN 47401
United States
Johan Bollen
Indiana University Bloomington - School of Informatics ( email )
901 E 10th St
Bloomington, IN 47401
United States
Fabio Rojas
Indiana University ( email )
107 S Indiana Ave
100 South Woodlawn
Bloomington, IN 47405
United States
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References:  28
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