Complexity and Theories of Change in International Politics

International Theory, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 35-63, March 2013

30 Pages Posted: 24 Mar 2013 Last revised: 10 Apr 2013

Date Written: March 22, 2013

Abstract

This article examines how the principles of complex systems can illuminate recurring mechanisms of change in theories of international relations. It applies the logic of complex systems to two specific puzzles in international politics – the problem of theorizing change in structural realism, and the dynamics of cross-border democratic diffusion.

In the first case, by shifting the analysis of anarchy’s consequences from state behavior to state attributes, complex systems can illustrate the sources of domestic and international transformations embedded in structural theories.This approach offers a way to think about democratization as a global process of interstate competition and socialization driven by the pressures of anarchy.

In the second case, the principles of co-adaptation in complex systems can help reframe diffusion not as the unilinear spread of democracy but as the interplay of self-reinforcing and self-dampening dynamics, whose interaction shapes both actor expectations and democratic outcomes.

In both instances, complex systems serve a limited but useful role; although not conducive to theory creation, the approach provides a useful analytical prism for examining patterns of change and continuity in global processes, and highlights concrete ways of improving models of transformations in international politics.

Keywords: complex adaptive systems, structural realism, neorealism, democratic diffusion, international relations theory

Suggested Citation

Gunitsky, Seva, Complexity and Theories of Change in International Politics (March 22, 2013). International Theory, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 35-63, March 2013, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2238128

Seva Gunitsky (Contact Author)

University of Toronto ( email )

Sidney Smith Hall, Room 3018
100 St. George Street
Toronto, Ontario
Canada
416-978-3346 (Phone)

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