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http://ssrn.com/abstract=2252209
 
 

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The VIX, the Variance Premium and Stock Market Volatility


Geert Bekaert


Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Marie Hoerova


European Central Bank (ECB)

December 2013

Columbia Business School Research Paper No. 13-32

Abstract:     
We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500 options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then examine the predictive power of the VIX and its two components for stock market returns, economic activity and financial instability. The variance premium predicts stock returns while the conditional stock market variance predicts economic activity and has a relatively higher predictive power for financial instability than does the variance premium.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 38

Keywords: option implied volatility, realized volatility, VIX, variance risk premium, risk aversion, stock return predictability, risk-return trade-off, economic uncertainty, financial instability

JEL Classification: C22, C52, G12, E32

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Date posted: April 17, 2013 ; Last revised: March 31, 2014

Suggested Citation

Bekaert, Geert and Hoerova, Marie, The VIX, the Variance Premium and Stock Market Volatility (December 2013). Columbia Business School Research Paper No. 13-32. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2252209 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2252209

Contact Information

Geert Bekaert
Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics ( email )
3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Marie Hoerova (Contact Author)
European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )
Kaiserstrasse 29
Frankfurt am Main, D-60311
Germany
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