Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2268061
 
 

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Citations (3)



 


 



Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices


Samuel Bazzi


University of California, San Diego (UCSD)

Christopher Blattman


Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA); Columbia University - Department of Political Science; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD); Center for Global Development; Innovations for Poverty Action; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL)

March 22, 2013


Abstract:     
Higher national incomes are correlated with lower political instability. We test three theories linking income to conflict using a new database of export price shocks. Price shocks have no effect on new conflicts, even large shocks in high-risk nations. Rising prices, however, lead to shorter, less intense wars. This evidence contradicts the theory that rising state revenues incentivize attempts at capture, but accords with two theories: that rising revenues improve state counter-insurgency capacity and reduce individual incentives to fight in existing conflicts. Conflict onset and continuation follow different processes. Ignoring this time dependence generates mistaken conclusions about income and instability.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 51

Keywords: income shocks, political instability, fragile states


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Date posted: May 23, 2013  

Suggested Citation

Bazzi, Samuel and Blattman, Christopher, Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices (March 22, 2013). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2268061 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2268061

Contact Information

Samuel Bazzi
University of California, San Diego (UCSD) ( email )
9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
United States
Christopher Blattman (Contact Author)
Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA) ( email )
420 West 118th Street
New York, NY 10027
United States
Columbia University - Department of Political Science ( email )
MC3320
420 West 118th Street
New York, NY 10027
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )
77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom
Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD) ( email )
Duke University
Durham, NC 90097
United States
Center for Global Development ( email )
2055 L St. NW
5th floor
Washington, DC 20036
United States
Innovations for Poverty Action ( email )
New Haven, CT
United States
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) ( email )
Cambridge, MA
United States
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