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http://ssrn.com/abstract=2272893
 
 

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Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-Currency World


Tarek A. Hassan


University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Rui C. Mano


International Monetary Fund

July 2, 2014

Fama-Miller Working Paper

Abstract:     
We decompose violations of uncovered interest parity into a cross-currency, a between-time-and-currency, and a cross-time component. We show that most of the systematic violations are in the cross-currency dimension. By contrast, we find no statistically reliable evidence that currency risk premia respond to deviations of forward premia from their time- and currency-specific mean. These results imply that the forward premium puzzle (FPP) and the carry-trade anomaly are separate phenomena that may require separate explanations. The carry trade is driven by static differences in interest rates across currencies, whereas the FPP appears to be driven primarily by cross-time variation in all currency risk premia against the US dollar. Models that feature two symmetric countries thus cannot explain either of the two phenomena. Once we make the appropriate econometric adjustments we also cannot reject the hypothesis that the elasticity of risk premia with respect to forward premia in all three dimensions is smaller than one. As a result, currency risk premia need not be correlated with expected changes in exchange rates.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 63

Keywords: Carry Trade, Forward Premium Puzzle, Uncovered Interest Parity

JEL Classification: F31, G12, G15

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Date posted: June 2, 2013 ; Last revised: August 24, 2014

Suggested Citation

Hassan, Tarek A. and Mano, Rui C., Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-Currency World (July 2, 2014). Fama-Miller Working Paper. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2272893 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2272893

Contact Information

Tarek Alexander Hassan (Contact Author)
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )
5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States
HOME PAGE: http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/tarek.hassan/index.html
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )
77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom
Rui C. Mano
International Monetary Fund ( email )
700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States
HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/ruimano/
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