Testing the Etch-a-Sketch Hypothesis: A Computational Analysis of Mitt Romney's Ideological Makeover During the 2012 Primary vs. General Elections
Justin H. Gross
University of Massachusetts Amherst - Department of Political Science
affiliation not provided to SSRN
Carnegie Mellon University
Noah A. Smith
Carnegie Mellon University - School of Computer Science
APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper
American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting
Downsian theory predicts that presidential candidates should shift toward the general electorate's median voter after securing their parties' nominations. Motivated by this largely untested hypothesis, we test the theory using candidates' campaign speeches as data. We develop a model to identify ideological cues in political text. After performing validation and robustness checks, we fit the model using presidential candidates' speeches from 2008 and 2012. The results show that Barack Obama, John McCain and Mitt Romney did indeed make substantively significant rhetorical shifts away from the ideological extremes after securing their parties' presidential nominations.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 39
Keywords: Political communication, text analysis, ideology, latent variable measurement, natural language processing, U.S. presidential elections, median voter
Date posted: September 18, 2013
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