Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2377290
 


 



P-Curve Fixes Publication Bias: Obtaining Unbiased Effect Size Estimates from Published Studies Alone


Leif D. Nelson


University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business

Uri Simonsohn


University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School

Joseph P. Simmons


University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School; University of Pennsylvania - Operations & Information Management Department

January 10, 2014


Abstract:     
Journals tend to publish only statistically significant evidence, creating a scientific record that markedly overstates the size of effects. We provide a new tool that arrives at unbiased effect size estimates while fully ignoring the unpublished record. It capitalizes on the fact that the distribution of significant p-values, p-curve, is a function of the true underlying effect. Researchers armed with only the sample sizes and p-values of the published findings can fully correct for publication bias. We demonstrate the use of p-curve by reassessing the evidence for the impact of “choice overload” from the Psychology literature, and the impact of minimum wage on unemployment from the Economics literature.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 17

Keywords: Publication bias, p-curve

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Date posted: January 11, 2014 ; Last revised: January 16, 2014

Suggested Citation

Nelson, Leif D. and Simonsohn, Uri and Simmons, Joseph P., P-Curve Fixes Publication Bias: Obtaining Unbiased Effect Size Estimates from Published Studies Alone (January 10, 2014). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2377290 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2377290

Contact Information

Leif D. Nelson
University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business ( email )
545 Student Services Building
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States
Uri Simonsohn (Contact Author)
University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School ( email )
3730 Walnut Street
JMHH 500
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6365
United States
Joseph P. Simmons
University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School ( email )
3733 Spruce Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6374
United States
University of Pennsylvania - Operations & Information Management Department ( email )
Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States
HOME PAGE: http://opimweb.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty.cfm?id=1666

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