Return of the Solow Paradox? It, Productivity, and Employment in U.S. Manufacturing
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
David H. Autor
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Gordon H. Hanson
University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (IRPS); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics
NBER Working Paper No. w19837
An increasingly influential "technological-discontinuity" paradigm suggests that IT-induced technological changes are rapidly raising productivity while making workers redundant. This paper explores the evidence for this view among the IT-using U.S. manufacturing industries. There is some limited support for more rapid productivity growth in IT-intensive industries depending on the exact measures, though not since the late 1990s. Most challenging to this paradigm, and our expectations, is that output contracts in IT-intensive industries relative to the rest of manufacturing. Productivity increases, when detectable, result from the even faster declines in employment.
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Number of Pages in PDF File: 23
Date posted: January 25, 2014
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