A Comparative Study of the Forecasting Performance of Three International Organizations

20 Pages Posted: 2 Mar 2014

See all articles by Pingfan Hong

Pingfan Hong

United Nations - Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)

Tan Zhibo

Fudan University - School of Economics; Peking University

Date Written: February 28, 2014

Abstract

This article evaluates and compares the forecasting performance of three international organizations: the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The annual forecasts made by the United Nations in the period of 1981-2011 are found to be fairly robust, in terms of bias and efficiency. In comparison, the forecasting performance of the United Nations is found to be marginally better than the other two organizations during the period of 2000-2012. However, the forecasts of all these organizations missed the Great Recession of 2009 by a large margin.

Keywords: evaluation of forecasts, forecasting errors, macroeconomic forecasting, financial crisis

JEL Classification: C30, C80

Suggested Citation

Hong, Pingfan and Zhibo, Tan and Zhibo, Tan, A Comparative Study of the Forecasting Performance of Three International Organizations (February 28, 2014). Journal of Policy Modeling, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2403009

Pingfan Hong (Contact Author)

United Nations - Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) ( email )

New York, NY 10017
United States
212-963-4701 (Phone)
212-963-1061 (Fax)

Tan Zhibo

Peking University ( email )

No. 38 Xueyuan Road
Haidian District
Beijing, Beijing 100871
China

Fudan University - School of Economics ( email )

600 GuoQuan Road
Shanghai, 200433
China

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