Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2414652
 


 



After Shelby County: Getting Section 2 of the VRA to Do the Work of Section 5


Christopher S. Elmendorf


University of California, Davis - School of Law

Douglas M. Spencer


University of Connecticut, School of Law

July 3, 2014

UC Davis Legal Studies Research Paper No. 372

Abstract:     
Until the Supreme Court put an end to it in Shelby County v. Holder, Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act was widely regarded as an effective, low-cost tool for blocking potentially discriminatory changes to election laws and administrative practices. The provision the Supreme Court left standing, Section 2, is generally seen as expensive, cumbersome and almost wholly ineffective at blocking changes before they take effect. This paper argues that the courts, in partnership with the Department of Justice, could reform Section 2 so that it fills much of the gap left by the Supreme Court’s evisceration of Section 5. The proposed reformation of Section 2 rests on two insights: first, that national survey data often contains as much or more information than precinct-level vote margins about the core factual matters in Section 2 cases; second, that the courts have authority to create rebuttable presumptions to regularize Section 2 adjudication. Section 2 cases currently turn on costly, case-specific estimates of voter preferences generated from precinct-level vote totals and demographic information. Judicial decisions provide little guidance about how future cases — each relying on data from a different set of elections — are likely to be resolved. By creating evidentiary presumptions whose application in any given case would be determined using national survey data and a common statistical model, the courts could greatly reduce the cost and uncertainty of Section 2 litigation. This approach would also end the dependence of vote-dilution claims on often-unreliable techniques of ecological inference, and would make coalitional claims brought jointly by two or more minority groups much easier to litigate.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 67

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Date posted: March 26, 2014 ; Last revised: July 8, 2014

Suggested Citation

Elmendorf, Christopher S. and Spencer, Douglas M., After Shelby County: Getting Section 2 of the VRA to Do the Work of Section 5 (July 3, 2014). UC Davis Legal Studies Research Paper No. 372. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2414652 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2414652

Contact Information

Christopher S. Elmendorf
University of California, Davis - School of Law ( email )
Martin Luther King, Jr. Hall
Davis, CA 95616-5201
United States
530-752-5756 (Phone)
530-753-5311 (Fax)
Douglas M. Spencer (Contact Author)
University of Connecticut, School of Law ( email )
65 Elizabeth Street
Hartford, CT 06105
United States
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