Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2423153
 


 



Assessing Futures Odds in the NCAA Tournament


Adam Schultz


University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

John R. Birge


University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

January 6, 2014


Abstract:     
In this paper, we develop a simple model to characterize how NCAA Division I men’s basketball teams’ futures odds should change as teams progress through the NCAA tournament. Using NCAA men’s basketball data from STATS LLC, we construct a logistic regression model to predict the likelihood of a team reaching a given round in the NCAA tournament. Based on the model results, we are also able to draw conclusions about the NCAA tournament selection committee’s seeding of teams with differing strengths of schedule. Additionally, we observe the actual movement of futures odds in the betting market for the NCAA tournament and conclude the market may overreact to First Round games played by top seeds. Ultimately, we identify a successful betting strategy based on our results. As a secondary finding, we note that a team’s First Round game location has little influence over the team’s expected likelihood of reaching the Final Four.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 9

JEL Classification: G13

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Date posted: April 13, 2014  

Suggested Citation

Schultz, Adam and Birge, John R., Assessing Futures Odds in the NCAA Tournament (January 6, 2014). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2423153 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2423153

Contact Information

Adam Schultz (Contact Author)
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )
5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Chicago Booth School of Business Logo

John R. Birge
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )
5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Chicago Booth School of Business Logo

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