Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2423692
 


 



Feeling the Future: A Meta-Analysis of 90 Experiments on the Anomalous Anticipation of Random Future Events


Daryl Bem


Cornell University

Patrizio E. Tressoldi


Università di Padova

Thomas Rabeyron


University of Nantes

Michael Duggan


Nottingham Trent University

April 11, 2014

Bem D, Tressoldi P, Rabeyron T and Duggan M. Feeling the future: A meta-analysis of 90 experiments on the anomalous anticipation of random future events [version 1; referees: awaiting peer review] F1000 Research 2015, 4:1188 (doi: 10.12688/f1000research.7177.1)

Abstract:     
In 2011, one of the authors (DJB) published a report of nine experiments in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology purporting to demonstrate that an individual’s cognitive and affective responses can be influenced by randomly selected stimulus events that do not occur until after his or her responses have already been made and recorded, a generalized variant of the phenomenon traditionally denoted by the term precognition. To encourage replications, all materials needed to conduct them were made available on request. We here report a meta-analysis of 90 experiments from 33 laboratories in 14 countries which yielded an overall effect greater than 6 sigma, z = 6.40, p = 1.2 × 10^-10 with an effect size (Hedges’ g) of 0.09. A Bayesian analysis yielded a Bayes Factor of 1.4 × 10^9 , greatly exceeding the criterion value of 100 for “decisive evidence” in support of the experimental hypothesis. When DJB’s original experiments are excluded, the combined effect size for replications by independent investigators is 0.06, z = 4.16, p = 1.1 × 10^-5 , and the BF value is 3,853, again exceeding the criterion for “decisive evidence.” The number of potentially unretrieved experiments required to reduce the overall effect size of the complete database to a trivial value of 0.01 is 544, and seven of eight additional statistical tests support the conclusion that the database is not significantly compromised by either selection bias or by “p-hacking” — the selective suppression of findings or analyses that failed to yield statistical significance. P-curve analysis, a recently introduced statistical technique, estimates the true effect size of our database to be 0.20, virtually identical to the effect size of DJB’s original experiments (0.22) and the closely related “presentiment” experiments (0.21). We discuss the controversial status of precognition and other anomalous effects collectively known as psi.

Keywords: precognition, psi, ESP, retrocausation, retro-priming, parapsychology


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Date posted: April 12, 2014 ; Last revised: November 2, 2015

Suggested Citation

Bem, Daryl and Tressoldi, Patrizio E. and Rabeyron, Thomas and Duggan, Michael, Feeling the Future: A Meta-Analysis of 90 Experiments on the Anomalous Anticipation of Random Future Events (April 11, 2014). Bem D, Tressoldi P, Rabeyron T and Duggan M. Feeling the future: A meta-analysis of 90 experiments on the anomalous anticipation of random future events [version 1; referees: awaiting peer review] F1000 Research 2015, 4:1188 (doi: 10.12688/f1000research.7177.1). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2423692 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2423692

Contact Information

Daryl Bem (Contact Author)
Cornell University ( email )
Ithaca, NY 14853
United States
Patrizio E. Tressoldi
Università di Padova ( email )
via Venezia 8
Padova, 35131
Italy
HOME PAGE: http://www.patriziotressoldi.it
Thomas Rabeyron
University of Nantes ( email )
1, quai de Tourville BP
Nantes Cedex 1
Nantes
France
Michael Duggan
Nottingham Trent University ( email )
Burton Street
Nottingham NG1 4BU, NG1 4LN
United Kingdom
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