Profiting from Machine Learning in the NBA Draft
NYU Poly - Department of Finance and Risk Engineering
May 3, 2014
I project historical NCAA college basketball performance to subsequent NBA performance for prospects using modern machine learning techniques without snooping bias. I find that the projections would have helped improve the drafting decisions of virtually every team: over the past ten years, teams forfeited an average of about $90,000,000 in lost productivity that could have been theirs had they followed the recommendations of the model. I provide team-by-team breakdowns of who should have been drafted instead, as well as team summaries of lost profit, and draft order comparison. Far from being just another input in making decisions, when used properly, advanced draft analytics can effectively be an additional revenue source in a team’s business model.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 17working papers series
Date posted: April 24, 2014 ; Last revised: May 3, 2014
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