Oppositional Projection in Perceived Support for Cap and Trade

Abstract

Contrary to previous research on social projection, we found that people exhibit oppositional projection in the divisive intergroup context of politics and environmental policy: Individuals positively projected their own stance onto members of their political in-group, while negatively projecting their own stance onto members of their political out-group. Two studies demonstrated that oppositional projection occurred when people estimated the stances of fellow Democrat and Republican voters (Studies 1 and 2) and political elites (elected representatives; Study 2) toward a cap-and-trade policy to limit carbon emissions. Structural equation models indicated that people’s estimates of political in-group stances were strongly and positively predicted by their own attitudes, whereas people’s estimates of their political out-group were strongly and negatively predicted by estimates of their political in-group (reflecting people’s assumption that their out-group opposed their in-group). We discuss oppositional projection’s consequences for perceptions of political gridlock amongst elites.

Keywords: attitude, projection, politics, polarization, oppositeness, climate change

JEL Classification: D72, Q28