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File name: SSRN-id247328. ; Size: 107K
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Forecasting the Liquidity of Very Small Private Companies
Aljosa Valentincic
University of Ljubljana - Faculty of Economics
Dusan Mramor
University of Ljubljana - Faculty of Economics
October 2000
Abstract:
Liquidity prediction models for VSPCs are developed in this paper. The sample includes 19,627 VSPCs and 28 industries. Special, publicly available data for Slovenian companies is used as liquidity indicator, representing a special, but generalizable case of "credit record" data. The liquidity indicator is predicted and used in lagged form as a predictive variable with and without financial ratios. We find that models including financial ratios are less efficient than models based on lagged liquidity indicator alone. One-year lag models are more efficient than two-year lag models. Surprisingly, models using both financial ratios and liquidity indicator perform only marginally better. Despite high overall efficiency, misclassification of problematic companies is high.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 41
JEL Classification: C21, G33, M13
working papers series
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Date posted: January 6, 2001
Suggested CitationValentincic, Aljosa and Mramor, Dusan, Forecasting the Liquidity of Very Small Private Companies (October 2000). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=247328 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.247328
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