Metro Railway Safety: An Analysis of Accident Precursors

Miltos Kyriakidis, Robin Hirsch, Arnab Majumdar, Metro railway safety: An analysis of accident precursors, Safety Science, Volume 50, Issue 7, August 2012, Pages 1535-1548, ISSN 0925-7535, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2012.03.004.

15 Pages Posted: 8 Oct 2014 Last revised: 5 Mar 2015

See all articles by Miltos Kyriakidis

Miltos Kyriakidis

Delft University of Technology

Robin Hirsch

Birmingham Centre for Railway Research & Education

Arnab Majumdar

Imperial College London - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Date Written: March 12, 2012

Abstract

Fatalities due to railway accidents occur rarely and some railways identify risks from potential accident precursors. By lowering precursor frequency, the probability of more serious incidents and accidents may be reduced, following the idea of a reverse pyramid between precursors, top events, injuries and deaths. To assist in reducing such risks, a new safety maturity model (SMM) is proposed which aims to address not only the behavioural and/or attitudinal culture, but also technical, operational and methodological elements and actual achievements in terms of safety outcomes.

This paper outlines the results of precursor analysis from 18 CoMET and Nova railways, all but two of which are metro (subway) operations, the other two being commuter railways. One of the commuter railways has mixed traffic including freight and long distance passenger trains, while four of the metro railways share lines with longer distance railways.

The paper analyses precursors, top events, injuries and deaths as well as safety maturity and their relationships both to each other and to incidents and accidents for the set of the major global metro railways. The 27 precursors analysed, for the period 2002-2009, fall into six categories: human performance; technical failures; passengers; fires; malicious action and management action.

To assess safety maturity, a model was developed based upon literature and metro experience. A questionnaire assessed the following safety maturity criteria for each metro: publication of safety reports; periodicity of safety monitoring; prioritisation of safety related incidents; efforts to mitigate risks and avoid incidents; description of safety procedures and monitoring of residual risks. The responses of each metro were scored to determine its aggregate safety maturity level.

Statistical analysis indicates a positive correlation between injuries and top events as well as between injuries and precursors. The safety maturity score is correlated with injuries but not with precursors, top events or fatalities. Using these results, this paper proposes a number of measures to improve metro railways safety in each precursor category.

Keywords: Metro railways, Accident precursors, Safety maturity, Safety maturity index, Risk prevention

Suggested Citation

Kyriakidis, Miltos and Hirsch, Robin and Majumdar, Arnab, Metro Railway Safety: An Analysis of Accident Precursors (March 12, 2012). Miltos Kyriakidis, Robin Hirsch, Arnab Majumdar, Metro railway safety: An analysis of accident precursors, Safety Science, Volume 50, Issue 7, August 2012, Pages 1535-1548, ISSN 0925-7535, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2012.03.004., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2506584 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2506584

Miltos Kyriakidis (Contact Author)

Delft University of Technology ( email )

Mekelweg 2
Mekelweg 2
Delft, 2628 CN
Netherlands

Robin Hirsch

Birmingham Centre for Railway Research & Education ( email )

R25, 12 Edgbaston Park Rd
Birmingham, B15 2TT
United Kingdom

Arnab Majumdar

Imperial College London - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering ( email )

Exhibition Road
London SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

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