Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh

64 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Susmita Dasgupta

Susmita Dasgupta

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Md. Moqbul Hossain

Ministry of Agriculture, Bangladesh - Soil Research Development Institute

Mainul Huq

World Bank

David Wheeler

World Bank - Policy Research Department

Date Written: December 1, 2014

Abstract

It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region.

Keywords: Climate Change and Environment, Global Environment, Science of Climate Change, Climate Change and Health

Suggested Citation

Dasgupta, Susmita and Hossain, Md. Moqbul and Huq, Mainul and Wheeler, David, Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh (December 1, 2014). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7140, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2540770

Susmita Dasgupta (Contact Author)

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/sdasgupta

Md. Moqbul Hossain

Ministry of Agriculture, Bangladesh - Soil Research Development Institute

Bangladesh

Mainul Huq

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

David Wheeler

World Bank - Policy Research Department ( email )

1818 H Street N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/dwheeler

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