Evaluating Multiple Emission Pathways for a Fixed Cumulative CO2 Emission from Socioeconomic Perspectives

15 Pages Posted: 23 Jun 2015

See all articles by Ken'ichi Matsumoto

Ken'ichi Matsumoto

Toyo University

Kaoru Tachiiri

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology - Research Institute for Global Change/Research Centre for Environmental Modelling and Application/Earth System Model Development and Application

Michio Kawamiya

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology - Research Institute for Global Change/Research Centre for Environmental Modelling and Application/Earth System Model Development and Application

Date Written: June 22, 2015

Abstract

Cumulative CO2 emission is a good indicator for climate stabilization. It has recently been used in socioeconomic research dealing with climate mitigation. However, previous studies do not focus on the socioeconomic impacts of choosing different emission pathways under fixed cumulative CO2 emissions. Such effects are important, since our capacity to reduce emissions may vary each year — thus affecting our policy choices. We develop five emission pathways based on a fixed cumulative CO2 emission (i.e., 812 GtC for this century). All pathways start declining emissions from the reference level in 2040 to attain zero by 2100. We determine the socioeconomic impacts for these pathways using a computable general equilibrium model. Our research indicates that the smaller the emissions, the higher the carbon prices each year. Differences in the global gross domestic product (GDP) among the pathways were less than 4% by 2090, while the differences in the cumulative GDP in terms of net present values were less than 0.1% (with a discount rate of 5%). Thus, there was limited dependence of GDP on pathway. The differences in the global primary energy demand among the pathways were more noticeable, although the largest difference in the cumulative demand was 4%.

Keywords: cumulative CO2 emission, climate mitigation, socioeconomic impact, computable general equilibrium model

Suggested Citation

Matsumoto, Ken'ichi and Tachiiri, Kaoru and Kawamiya, Michio, Evaluating Multiple Emission Pathways for a Fixed Cumulative CO2 Emission from Socioeconomic Perspectives (June 22, 2015). USAEE Working Paper No. 15-221, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2621631 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2621631

Ken'ichi Matsumoto (Contact Author)

Toyo University ( email )

5-28-20 Hakusan
Bunkyo-ku
Tokyo 112-8606
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+81(0)339457337 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.matsumoto-lab.net

Kaoru Tachiiri

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology - Research Institute for Global Change/Research Centre for Environmental Modelling and Application/Earth System Model Development and Application ( email )

3173-25 Showa-mach
Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, 236-0001
Japan

Michio Kawamiya

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology - Research Institute for Global Change/Research Centre for Environmental Modelling and Application/Earth System Model Development and Application ( email )

3173-25 Showa-machi
Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, 236-0001
Japan

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