Altruism, Macroeconomic Aggregates and the Cyclical Behavior of Fertility: Theory and Evidence from U.S. Data

28 Pages Posted: 2 Jul 2015

See all articles by Salem M. Abo-Zaid

Salem M. Abo-Zaid

University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Date Written: June 28, 2015

Abstract

Using U.S. data for 1976-2013, this paper studies the effects of various macroeconomic variables, particularly the national debt, government budget deficits and taxes, on fertility decisions over the business cycle. A rise in the debt-GDP ratio, government spending-GDP ratio and the deficit-GDP ratio reduces fertility. On the other hand, a fall in the tax revenues-GDP ratio is associated with lower fertility rates. These results hold even after controlling for other potential determinants of fertility such as the female participation rate in the labor force, inflation rate, GDP growth rate, urbanization rate, female life expectancy, marriage rate and divorce rate. I then show that these findings can, to a large extent, be explained by an overlapping generations model with altruism, and that abstracting from altruism delivers results that are at odds with the data.

Keywords: Fertility, Debt, Deficit, Taxation, Labor-Force Participation, Altruism

JEL Classification: E32, H31, H62, H63, J10, J11, J13

Suggested Citation

Abo-Zaid, Salem M., Altruism, Macroeconomic Aggregates and the Cyclical Behavior of Fertility: Theory and Evidence from U.S. Data (June 28, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2625394 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2625394

Salem M. Abo-Zaid (Contact Author)

University of Maryland, Baltimore County ( email )

1000 Hilltop Circle
Baltimore, MD 21250
United States
410-455-2498 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/salemabozaidshomepage/home

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
95
Abstract Views
651
Rank
493,626
PlumX Metrics