An Improved Method for the Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Power Market Performance with Increased Penetration of Renewable Energy

Abstract

This study extends the system pattern short-term forecasting method for power systems to incorporate non-dispatchable renewable energy, thus permitting the forecasting of CO2 emissions along with the forecasting of prices, line congestion, and other system variables. It also develops an empirically-based system pattern transition matrix permitting a dynamic extension of the method. The practical usefulness of the resulting extended forecasting method is illustrated by means of a 5-bus test system based on data from the Midcontinent Independent System Operator.

Keywords: CO2 emission, empirically-based system pattern transition matrix, non-dispatchalbe renewable energy, short-term forecasting, system pattern

JEL Classification: C6, C8