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Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis

Yin-Wong Cheung
University of California, Santa Cruz - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

May 2001

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 482
HKIMR Working Paper No. 11/2000

Abstract:
Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the U.S. are found to share some common long-term and short-term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger-caused by the other two economies, local factors account for a large proportion of output growth variability and are mainly responsible for her output uncertainty. On the transmission mechanism, the selected trade and financial variables have incremental explanatory power but do not lessen the ability of domestic and foreign output variables to explain Hong Kong growth dynamics. Interestingly, the U.S. does not appear to exert undue influences on Hong Kong.

Keywords: Common Trends/Cycles, Transmission Mechanism, Structural Determinants

JEL Classifications: E32, F42, C22

Working Paper Series

Date posted: April 03, 2001 ; Last revised: September 01, 2004

Suggested Citation

Cheung, Yin-Wong, Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis (May 2001). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 482; HKIMR Working Paper No. 11/2000. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=265812

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