The Impact of Forecast Disclosure and Accuracy on Equity Pricing: An IPO Perspective

Abstract:     
In a relatively less litigious environment like Australia, it is common to find IPO firms that voluntarily provide forecasts in their prospectus. Using 158 Australian industrial IPOs listed from 1991 to 1997, we examine the impact of the disclosure and accuracy of earnings and dividend forecasts on equity pricing. Our results show that IPO firms' disclosure policy is not related to their initial and long-run valuation. However, the market appears to price managers' ability to forecast: firms with inaccurate earnings and dividend forecasts, especially those that fall short of their forecasts, experience adverse price reactions surrounding the day when the actual figures are released. Our results also show a significant relationship between forecast errors and IPO firms' post-listing performance. Further analysis shows that this relationship is driven mainly by the announcement effect.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 31

Keywords: Forecast accuracy, IPOs, initial market valuation, announcement effects, long-run performance

JEL Classification: G14, G12, G28

working papers series