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Implementing Causality Tests with Panel Data, with an Example from Localpublic Finance


Douglas Holtz-Eakin


Syracuse University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Whitney K. Newey


Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Harvey S. Rosen


Princeton University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

March 1989

NBER Working Paper No. t0048

Abstract:     
This paper considers estimation and testing of vector autoregression coefficients in panel data, and applies the techniques to analyze the dynamic properties of revenues, expenditures, and grants in a sample of United States municipalities. The model allows for nonstationary individual effects, and is estimated by applying instrumental variables to the quasi-differenced autoregressive equations Q Particular attention is paid to specifying lag lengths and forming convenient test statistics. The empirical results suggest that intertemporal linkages are important to the understanding of state and local behavior. Such linkages are ignored in conventional cross sectional regressions. Also, we present evidence that past grant revenues help to predict current expenditures, but that past expenditures do not help to predict current revenues.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 45

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Date posted: July 5, 2001  

Suggested Citation

Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, Newey, Whitney K. and Rosen, Harvey S., Implementing Causality Tests with Panel Data, with an Example from Localpublic Finance (March 1989). NBER Working Paper No. t0048. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=275993

Contact Information

Douglas Holtz-Eakin (Contact Author)
Syracuse University ( email )
900 S. Crouse Avenue
Syracuse, NY 13244-2130
United States
315-443-3612 (Phone)
315-443-3717 (Fax)
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Whitney K. Newey
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics ( email )
50 Memorial Drive
E52-262D
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-6420 (Phone)
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Harvey S. Rosen
Princeton University - Department of Economics ( email )
001 Fisher Hall
Princeton, NJ 08544
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany
Feedback to SSRN (Beta)


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