Expectational Stability of Resonant Frequency Sunspot Equilibria
George W. Evans
University of Oregon - Department of Economics; University of Saint Andrews - School of Economics and Finance
Bank of Finland; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
CESifo Working Paper Series No. 497
We consider the stability under adaptive learning of the complete set of solutions to the basic linear forward looking model in which the current value of the state variable depends linearly on the (subjectively) expected value of the state next period and the coefficient of the expected state is bigger than one in absolute value. In addition to the fundamentals solution, the literature describes both finite-state Markov sunspot solutions, satisfying a resonant frequency condition, and autoregressive solutions depending on an arbitrary martingale difference sequence. We clarify the relationships between these solutions and show that the stability properties of equilibria may depend crucially on the representation used by agents in the learning process. Only the finite-state Markov sunspot solutions can be stable under learning.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 15
Keywords: Indeterminacy, Representations of Solutions, Learnability, Expectational Stability, Endogenous Fluctuations
JEL Classification: C62, D83 D84, E31, E32working papers series
Date posted: August 1, 2001
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