Chaotic Interest Rate Rules
New York University - Leonard N. Stern School of Business - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Duke University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
August 15, 2001
A growing empirical and theoretical literature argues in favor of specifying monetary policy in the form of Taylor-type interest rate feedback rules. That is, rules whereby the nominal interest rate is set as an increasing function of inflation with a slope greater than one around an intended inflation target. This paper shows that such rules can easily lead to chaotic dynamics. The result is obtained for feedback rules that depend on contemporaneous or expected future inflation. The existence of chaotic dynamics is established analytically and numerically in the context of calibrated economies. The battery of fiscal policies that has recently been advocated for avoiding global indeterminacy induced by Taylor-type interest-rate rules (such as liquidity traps) are shown to be unlikely to provide a remedy for the complex dynamics characterized in this paper.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 21
Keywords: Taylor rules, chaos, periodic equilibria
JEL Classification: E52, E31, E63
Date posted: August 19, 2001
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