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A Frequent Misuse of Significance Tests
Thomas Mayer University of California, Davis - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research) August 2001 CESifo Working Paper Series No. 549 Abstract: Economists sometimes interpret the failure of a significance test to disconfirm a hypothesis as evidence that this hypothesis is valid. Six examples of this are cited from recent journals. But this is a misinterpretation of what significance tests show. While in general it is correct that every failure to disconfirm a hypothesis adds to its credibility, the term "disconfirm" is defined differently for this purpose than it is in the context of significance tests.
Keywords: Significance Tests, T Values, T Coefficients, Confirmation JEL Classifications: C1, B4 Working Paper SeriesDate posted: September 08, 2001 ; Last revised: September 01, 2004Suggested CitationContact Information
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