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The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited


Ivo Welch


University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
September 2001

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1325

Abstract:     
This paper presents the results of a survey of 510 finance and economics professors. The consensus forecast for the 1-year equity premium is about 3% to 3.5%, the consensus forecast for the 30-year equity premium (arithmetic) is about 5% to 5.5%. The consensus 30-year stock market forecast is about 10%. These forecasts are considerably lower than those taken just 3 years ago.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 15

Keywords: Equity Premium

JEL Classification: G00, G10, G30, F4

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Date posted: September 27, 2001  

Suggested Citation

Welch, Ivo, The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited (September 2001). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1325. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=285169

Contact Information

Ivo Welch (Contact Author)
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) ( email )
405 Hilgard Avenue
Box 951361
Los Angeles, CA 90095
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
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