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The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited

Ivo Welch
Brown University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

September 2001

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1325

Abstract:
This paper presents the results of a survey of 510 finance and economics professors. The consensus forecast for the 1-year equity premium is about 3% to 3.5%, the consensus forecast for the 30-year equity premium (arithmetic) is about 5% to 5.5%. The consensus 30-year stock market forecast is about 10%. These forecasts are considerably lower than those taken just 3 years ago.

Keywords: Equity Premium

JEL Classifications: G00, G10, G30, F4

Working Paper Series

Date posted: September 27, 2001 ; Last revised: November 27, 2003

Suggested Citation

Welch, Ivo, The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited (September 2001). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1325. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=285169

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Ivo Welch (Contact Author) Brown University - Department of Economics ( email ) 64 Waterman Street Providence, RI 02912 United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 United States

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