Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=287114
 
 

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In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany


Harm Bandholz


University of Hamburg

Michael Funke


Hamburg University, Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

October 2001

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 571

Abstract:     
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting business conditions.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 28

Keywords: Business Cycles, Leading Indicators, Turning Points, Markov Switching, Germany

JEL Classification: C32, C53

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Date posted: October 23, 2001  

Suggested Citation

Bandholz, Harm and Funke, Michael, In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany (October 2001). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 571. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=287114

Contact Information

Harm Bandholz
University of Hamburg
Von-Melle-Park 5
20146 Hamburg
Germany
Michael Funke (Contact Author)
Hamburg University, Department of Economics ( email )
Von-Melle-Park 5
Hamburg, 20146
Germany
CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)
Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany
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