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Bankruptcy Prediction With Industry Effects

Sudheer Chava

Georgia Institute of Technology - College of Management

Robert A. Jarrow

Cornell University - Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management

August 2004

This paper investigates the forecasting accuracy of bankruptcy hazard rate models for U.S. companies over the time period 1962 - 1999 using both yearly and monthly observation intervals. The contribution of this paper is multiple-fold. One, using an expanded bankruptcy database we validate the superior forecasting performance of Shumway's (2001) model as opposed to Altman (1968) and Zmijewski (1984). Two, we demonstrate the importance of including industry effects in hazard rate estimation. Industry groupings are shown to significantly affect both the intercept and slope coefficients in the forecasting equations. Three, we extend the hazard rate model to apply to financial firms and monthly observation intervals. Due to data limitations, most of the existing literature employs only yearly observations. We show that bankruptcy prediction is markedly improved using monthly observation intervals. Fourth, consistent with the notion of market efficiency with respect to publicly available information, we demonstrate that accounting variables add little predictive power when market variables are already included in the bankruptcy model.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 49

Keywords: Bankruptcy Prediction, Hazard Models, Industry Effects, Reduced Form Credit Risk Models

JEL Classification: G33, C41, G13

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Date posted: October 20, 2001  

Suggested Citation

Chava, Sudheer and Jarrow, Robert A., Bankruptcy Prediction With Industry Effects (August 2004). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=287474 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.287474

Contact Information

Sudheer Chava (Contact Author)
Georgia Institute of Technology - College of Management ( email )
800 West Peachtree St., NW
Atlanta, GA 30308-1149
United States
HOME PAGE: http://www.prism.gatech.edu/~schava6/
Robert A. Jarrow
Cornell University - Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management ( email )
Department of Finance
Ithaca, NY 14853
United States
607-255-4729 (Phone)
607-254-4590 (Fax)
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