Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=289549
 
 

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Variable Annuities versus Mutual Funds: A Monte Carlo Analysis of the Options


Moshe A. Milevsky


York University - Schulich School of Business

Kamphol Panyagometh


NIDA Business School

September 2001

York-Schulich-Finance Working Paper No. MM10-1

Abstract:     
This paper quantifies the impact of return uncertainty when measuring the relative benefits of mutual funds versus variable annuities by calculating the certainty equivalents of utility. This paper points out that the possibility of an investment loss endows the holder of the mutual fund with a 'real option' to harvest those losses and this 'real option' has value and must be factored into any decision in advance.

Our main practical observation is that although we find that low-cost Variable Annuities are indeed superior to low-cost Mutual Funds for investors with a long time horizon, the critical threshold is at least 10 years for typical levels of risk aversion. If, however, we ignore the embedded options, the erroneous break-even horizon drops to 5 years. The stochasticity increases the break-even horizon.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 24

Keywords: Asset Allocation, Taxes, Insurance

JEL Classification: J26, G11

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Date posted: November 8, 2001  

Suggested Citation

Milevsky, Moshe A. and Panyagometh, Kamphol, Variable Annuities versus Mutual Funds: A Monte Carlo Analysis of the Options (September 2001). York-Schulich-Finance Working Paper No. MM10-1. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=289549 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.289549

Contact Information

Moshe Arye Milevsky (Contact Author)
York University - Schulich School of Business ( email )
4700 Keele Street
Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3
Canada
Kamphol Panyagometh
NIDA Business School ( email )
118 Seri Thai
Bangkapi
Bangkok
Thailand
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