Do Speculative Stocks Lower Prices and Increase Volatility of Value Stocks?
University of Pittsburgh - Department of Mathematics
Vladimira A. Ilieva
The Institute of Behavioral Finance
Chapman University - Department of Business and Economics
Vernon L. Smith
Chapman University - Economic Science Institute; Chapman University School of Law
The Journal of Psychology & Financial Markets, Vol. 3, 2002
The influence of speculative stocks on value stocks is examined through a set of economics experiments. The speculative asset is designed to model a company involved in a rapidly growing market that will be saturated at some unknown point. Using a control experiment where both assets are similar value stocks, we find statistical support for the assertion that the presence of a speculative stock increases the volatility and diminishes the price of the value stock. In addition, the temporal minimum price of the value stock during the last phase of the experiment is lower in the presence of the speculative stock (when the trading price of the speculative asset is declining sharply). These results indicate that an overreaction in the speculative stock tends to divert investment capital away from other assets. An examination of the relative magnitude of monthly closing price changes confirm strong correlations between the Dow Jones Average and the more speculative Nasdaq index during the time period in 1990 to 2001 and particularly during the two years prior to the peak in March 2000 (0.72 correlation) and the March 2000 to August 2001 decline (0.79 correlation). Supplementary experiments using independent (or legally separate) markets trading the same asset show that a higher price in one market does not lead to a higher one in the other.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 36
Keywords: asset price dynamics, speculative assets, value stocks, overreaction, excess cash, volatility, legally separated markets, independent markets, Chinese A/B shares
JEL Classification: E44, E47, G12, G14, D50, F43Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: June 7, 2002
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