Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=316339
 
 

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Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization: The Case of Belarus


Marina Bakanova


KU Leuven - LICOS - Centrum voor Transitie-economie

Lucio Vinhas Vinhas de Souza


DG-ECFIN, European Commission; UNU-CRIS

2002

Tinbergen Institute 2002-053/2

Abstract:     
This paper studies the connection between trade and growth in the context of a partial and inconsistent liberalization process in a specific Eastern European country in transition towards market economy, namely, the Republic of Belarus. The analysis of the country trade patterns during the USSR period and the years since independence revealed that unlike its close neighbors (the Baltic States and Poland) Belarus did not succeed in changing the commodity or the geographical structure of its trade. It is almost a good representation of reality to say that Belarus trades with Russia. The assessment of the rationale for the closer integration with Russia and the impact of this process on Belarus growth led us to the conclusion that the integration in the form of a non-exclusive Free Trade Area and within the framework of a wider set of international connections rather than the move towards a Customs Union (and a Union State) with Russia would be a more optimal policy for Belarus. This conclusion is supported by the results of country-specific growth regressions and of a counterfactual "free trade experiment" via a small CGE model. This paper is partially based on the work by the Authors for the World Bank Global Development Network (GDN) Research Project "Explaining Growth in the CIS Countries".

Number of Pages in PDF File: 33

Keywords: CGE models, growth, transition economics, international trade, economic integration

JEL Classification: F14, F15, F17, O47, P2

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Date posted: July 11, 2002  

Suggested Citation

Bakanova, Marina and Vinhas de Souza, Lucio Vinhas, Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization: The Case of Belarus (2002). Tinbergen Institute 2002-053/2. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=316339 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.316339

Contact Information

Marina Bakanova
KU Leuven - LICOS - Centrum voor Transitie-economie ( email )
Deberiotstraat, 34
Leuven, B-3000
Belgium
Lucio Vinhas Vinhas de Souza (Contact Author)
DG-ECFIN, European Commission ( email )
BU-1 05/190
Brussels, Bruxelles B-1049
Belgium
HOME PAGE: http://www.vinhasdesouza.eu
UNU-CRIS ( email )
Potterierei 72
Brugge, 8000
Belgium
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