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It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic Programming Analysis of Football Strategy

David H. Romer
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

June 2002

NBER Working Paper No. W9024

Abstract:
This paper uses play-by-play accounts of virtually all regular season National Football League games for 1998-2000 to analyze teams' choices on fourth down between trying for a first down and kicking. Dynamic programming is used to estimate the values of possessing the ball at different points on the field. These estimates are combined with data on the results of kicks and conventional plays to estimate the average payoffs to kicking and going for it under different circumstances. Examination of teams' actual decisions shows systematic, overwhelmingly statistically significant, and quantitatively large departures from the decisions the dynamic-programming analysis implies are preferable.

JEL Classifications: L10, D21, L83

Working Paper Series

Date posted: June 21, 2002 ; Last revised: September 13, 2002

Suggested Citation

Romer, David H., It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic Programming Analysis of Football Strategy (June 2002). NBER Working Paper No. W9024. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=316803

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David H. Romer (Contact Author) University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics ( email ) 549 Evans Hall #3880 Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 United States 510-642-0822 (Phone)
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 United States

Abstract

Citations (1)

Date posted: June 21, 2002 ; Last revised: September 13, 2002

Suggested Citation

Contact Information

David H. Romer (Contact Author)