Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?
Menzie David Chinn
University of Wisconsin, Madison - Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs and Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
City University of Hong Kong - Department of Economics & Finance; University of California at Santa Cruz - Department of Economics
Antonio I. Garcia Pascual
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Western Hemisphere Department; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
UC Santa Cruz Economics Working Paper No. 521; UC Santa Cruz International Economics Working Paper No. 02-16
HKIMR Working Paper No. 12/2005
We re-assess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade: interest rate parity, productivity based models, and a composite specification. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications - purchasing power parity and the sticky price monetary model. The models are estimated in first-difference and error correction specifications, and model performance evaluated at forecast horizons of 1, 4 and 20 quarters, using the mean squared error, direction of change metrics, and the "consistency" test of Cheung and Chinn (1998). Overall, model/specification/currency combinations that work well in one period do not necessarily work well in another period.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 30
Keywords: exchange rates, monetary model, productivity, interest rate parity, behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, forecasting performance
JEL Classification: F31, F47working papers series
Date posted: February 9, 2004
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