News or Noise?  an Analysis of Gnp Revisions

Mankiw, N. Gregory; Shapiro, Matthew D.

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News or Noise? an Analysis of Gnp Revisions

NBER Working Paper No. w1939

24 Pages Posted: 19 Jun 2004 Last revised: 26 Oct 2022

See all articles by N. Gregory Mankiw

N. Gregory Mankiw

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Matthew D. Shapiro

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: June 1986

Abstract

This paper studies the nature of the errors in preliminary GNP data,It first documents that these errors are large. For example, suppose theprelimimary estimate indicates that real GNP did not change over therecent quarter; then one can be only 80 percent confident that the finalestimate (annual rate) will be in the range from -2.8 percent to +2.8percent. The paper also documents that the revisions in GNP data are notforecastable, This finding implies that the preliminary estimates are theefficient given available information. Hence, the Bureau of EconomicAnalysis appears to follow efficient statistical procedures, in making itspreliminary estimates.

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Mankiw, N. Gregory and Shapiro, Matthew D., News or Noise? an Analysis of Gnp Revisions (June 1986). NBER Working Paper No. w1939, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=344767