Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Disaggregated Economic Activity in the US: Theory and Evidence

Abstract:     
We examine the extent to which exchange rate fluctuations affect the US sectoral output and price. The evidence indicates that the expansionary and contractionary effects cancel out in determining industrial real output growth in the face of exchange rate fluctuations. More importantly, there is evidence of a reduction in price inflation in several industries, which is statistically significant in Finance, in response to dollar appreciation. This evidence is consistent with the reduction in aggregate demand through the decline in net exports and the increase in aggregate supply through the reduction in the cost of imported intermediate goods.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 31

Keywords: Exchange rate, External exposure, Sectoral activity

JEL Classification: F14, F31, F41, E23

working papers series